August closings across the Valley were down 6.3% from last year. That's the first month all year sales didn't beat 2025. At the same time, home sales over $3 million were up 59%, from 39 closings a year ago to 62 this August.
Same month. Same market. Two completely different stories.
The data comes straight from The Cromford Report, and their read on it makes sense once you dig into it. Mortgage rates jumped from around 6.75% to 7.24% in under two weeks this summer, ahead of a Fed decision. That's enough to add roughly $150 a month to a typical payment, not enough to price most buyers out, but enough to make them pause. It's the volatility, not the rate level itself, that stalled things.
Luxury buyers don't have that problem. They're not financing the same way most buyers are. Cromford's own analyst points to the stock market and record corporate profits as the driver there, not interest rates.
I'm seeing the same split when I pull city-by-city numbers. Phoenix citywide sits at a Cromford Market Index of 110 right now (100 is considered balanced), and that's actually down from 124 just last quarter, so the broad market is cooling off. Scottsdale is sitting at 158.8, and it's climbed every single period, month over month, quarter over quarter, year over year. Paradise Valley is even higher.
If you're buying or selling under $1.5 million, you're in a market that just took a real pause. If you're above $3 million, you're in one of the strongest months of the year.
Here's what that actually looks like depending on where you're shopping. Under $600,000, and especially in the $350,000 to $400,000 range, 59% of August sales came with a seller-paid incentive, closing costs covered, a rate buydown, sometimes both. In that specific price band it was 71%. If you're buying there, ask for it. If you're selling there, budget for it before you list.
From $600,000 to $1.5 million, it's a quieter version of the same thing. Sales are still happening, but buyers have more room to negotiate than they did a year ago.
$1.5 million to $3 million is where it starts to flip. Sales in that range were up 15% year over year in August. Buyers still have some leverage, it's just thinner.
Above $3 million, sellers have it. 62 closings in August versus 39 last year, and that buyer isn't waiting on a mortgage rate to make a decision.
Location matters as much as price. Phoenix citywide is at that 110 Market Index, basically balanced, leaning slightly toward sellers. Scottsdale is at 158.8. Queen Creek, on the other end, is down at 52.3, solidly a buyer's market. Three cities in the same Valley, three completely different negotiating positions right now.
I've been doing this a while, and I don't know that I've seen a split this wide, prices pausing on one end and setting records on the other, in the same month, in the same metro.
