I keep seeing the same stat pop up everywhere lately: nationally, sellers now outnumber buyers by 57.9%, the strongest buyer's market Redfin has on record going back to 2013. I wanted to check whether that headline actually holds up for Phoenix specifically, or if it's one of those national numbers that doesn't mean much once you zoom in locally.
The claim: Phoenix is one of the best places in the country to be a buyer right now.
The check: I pulled Redfin's own city-level breakdown behind that national number. Phoenix isn't just keeping pace with the national trend, it's beating it. As of August 2026, Redfin counted roughly 30,706 sellers against 15,763 buyers in the Phoenix metro, a 94.8% gap. That's nearly double the national average, and it lands Phoenix in the top 10 strongest buyer's markets in the country, in the same group as Nashville, Miami, Houston, Orlando, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Austin, Dallas and Atlanta.
Verdict: Fact. But it comes with a real asterisk, because "Phoenix" isn't one market. It's a dozen different ones stacked on top of each other, and right now they're behaving very differently.
It depends entirely on where you're shopping
I cross-checked the Redfin numbers against the Cromford Report, which tracks supply and demand city by city across the Valley using its own Market Index (100 means balanced, below 100 favors buyers, above 100 favors sellers).
Right now, Queen Creek is sitting at a Market Index of 50.0, the softest number of any city I checked. Active supply there is running about 50% above normal levels while demand is running well below normal. Buckeye is right behind it at 50.8, with even more raw inventory piling up, supply is up nearly 200% versus a typical baseline. San Tan Valley isn't far off either, at 53.9. If you're buying in any of these three, you have real leverage: more homes to choose from, more room to negotiate on price, and sellers who are more likely to cover concessions to get a deal done.
Scottsdale is the opposite story. Its Market Index sits at 156.0, the tightest of any city I pulled. Active supply there is running well below normal, and it's one of the only cities in the Valley still showing positive year-over-year price appreciation. If you're buying in Scottsdale, the national "buyer's market" headline barely applies to you. You're still competing for the good listings.
Phoenix proper falls in between, close to balanced, tilted just slightly toward sellers.
What this actually means if you're buying
The 57.9% national number and even the 94.8% Phoenix number are real, but they're an average across a metro area that includes both Queen Creek and Scottsdale in the same breath. If someone tells you "it's a buyer's market right now," the next question should always be which part of the Valley they're talking about. A buyer looking in the East Valley growth corridor right now is working with a very different set of numbers than a buyer looking in Old Town Scottsdale.
If you're house hunting somewhere in the Valley right now, has that matched what you're seeing, easy in some areas and still competitive in others? I'd be curious to hear where.
Sources: Redfin, "It's Now The Strongest Buyer's Market on Record, Driven by the Sun Belt" (August 2026 data); The Cromford Report, Large City Market Snapshot, measured 9/28/2026.
Greg Corbett is a Phoenix-based real estate agent with HomeSmart. Reach out anytime with questions about buying or selling in the Valley.
