These guides sit behind Between the Lines Ep.6, where I looked at how every major Phoenix-area city moved on the Cromford Market Index in 30 days. Find your city below, pick buying or selling, and read the guide that fits. Every number is from the Cromford Report as of October 6, 2026, and the mortgage rate is Freddie Mac's October 1 reading. Chandler and Scottsdale, the two cities above 110, are covered in the last section.
Cities Under 80 on the Cromford Market Index
GUIDE 1: Buying Before Year-End in a City Under 80
Cities: Maricopa, Queen Creek, Buckeye, San Tan Valley, Surprise, Tempe, Goodyear
Market data as of October 6, 2026 (Cromford Report, single family detached). Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, October 1, 2026.
Where your city stands
The Cromford Market Index runs on a scale where 100 is balanced, above 100 leans toward sellers, and below 100 leans toward buyers. Cromford describes it as a short-term forecast built from how pending, active and sold listings are trending against the previous four years. It is a read on direction and leverage, not a price tag.
Every city in this group sits well below 100. Here is where each one landed on 10/6, and what it was a month earlier:
City | Index now | A month ago | Active listings now (a month ago) | Listing success rate now (a month ago) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maricopa | 42.8 | 51.8 | 640 (615) | 62.0% (66.2%) |
Queen Creek | 47.3 | 52.3 | 425 (388) | 69.6% (69.4%) |
Buckeye | 49.7 | 50.9 | 1,001 (959) | 71.3% (70.9%) |
San Tan Valley | 52.5 | 56.4 | 994 (972) | 65.6% (70.7%) |
Surprise | 62.3 | 74.2 | 1,227 (1,119) | 73.2% (70.9%) |
Tempe | 68.4 | 87.0 | 269 (248) | 72.6% (78.1%) |
Goodyear | 70.9 | 79.1 | 633 (594) | 71.4% (71.7%) |
Listing success rate is the share of listings that end in a sale instead of expiring or being pulled. At 62% to 73%, roughly a quarter to a third of homes listed in these cities are not selling. Maricopa (62.0%) and San Tan Valley (65.6%) are the weakest and both slipped over the month; Surprise is the only city that improved meaningfully.
Two things stand out. Inventory is rising in almost every one of these cities while monthly sales are falling (Maricopa 103 sales vs 133, Queen Creek 80 vs 102, Surprise 235 vs 288). And Buckeye is the odd one: demand ticked up even though supply is high.
What that means for you as a buyer
You have more room to negotiate than you have had in a while. That does not mean every house is discounted. The index is a city-wide read. The house you want sits in one neighborhood, at one price, with its own seller.
What to do before December 31
- Run your payment at today's rate, not last year's. Freddie Mac's 30-year average hit 7.28% on Oct 1, 2026. Get a lender to show you the payment at that rate and with a buydown, so you know what you can afford and what a buydown is worth compared to a lower price.
- Look at the listing, not the city. Days on market, price reductions and whether it has relisted tell you more than the index does. A home that has sat 45 days with one cut is a different negotiation than a fresh listing.
- Make the first offer a test. With supply high and demand low, the seller has to prove they won't come down, and the first offer is how you find out. We decide the structure (price, credits, a buydown, or a mix) based on what works best for you overall. If the seller won't move, we move on, unless it's a house you love.
- If you are looking at new construction, ask what is being offered. In the higher-supply cities on this list (Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley), builders compete with each other for the same buyers. Compare the incentive, not just the base price, and read what the incentive requires of you (preferred lender, closing date).
- Tempe fell the most in this group (87.0 to 68.4). It is a smaller market, 61 sales a month and 269 active listings, so its numbers move more easily than the bigger cities. The drop is still real, and it is pointing the same direction as the rest of the group.
What to watch
Rates and seller motivation. Nothing says prices have to fall next month, but if rates stay near 7% for an extended stretch, prices will come down. Buyers can only afford so much payment, and sellers who need to move will be the first to cut. When they do, comps in that neighborhood shift and the leverage grows. Freddie Mac releases a new rate every Thursday.
Timing is also on a buyer's side. The end of the year has typically been one of the better times to buy, because fewer buyers are out and the sellers still listed tend to be more motivated. In a market already leaning toward buyers, that stacks.
Next step
Reach out however you like (reply, call or text) and tell me your city, your price range and your timeline. I'll pull the active and recently sold listings for the neighborhoods you are looking at and show you where the negotiating room actually is.
GUIDE 2: Selling Before Year-End in a City Under 80
Cities: Maricopa, Queen Creek, Buckeye, San Tan Valley, Surprise, Tempe, Goodyear
Market data as of October 6, 2026 (Cromford Report, single family detached). Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, October 1, 2026.
Where your city stands
Same index and same data as the buyer guide. The short version: every city here is below 100, which means buyers have the upper hand. Inventory is up, monthly sales are down, and the index fell in all seven cities over the last 30 days. (See the table in Guide 1.)
For a seller, the number that matters most is the gap between listings and sales. Maricopa had 640 active listings and 103 sales a month. Surprise had 1,227 active listings and 235 sales a month. Your home is competing with a lot of others for a smaller pool of buyers.
What that means for you as a seller
Pricing and condition matter more than they did a few months ago. Buyers have choices, and they are comparing your home against several others, many of them new construction with incentives.
What to do before December 31
- Decide whether you have to sell, or want to. If your timeline is flexible, you can wait and see what rates do. If it isn't (a move, a job, a purchase already in motion), the plan below is for you.
- Price against your neighborhood's active listings, not last quarter's sold prices. Last quarter's sales were made in a different market. The homes that matter are the ones on the market today, especially the ones that have already cut their price.
- Price it right the first time. A home that starts high and gets cut twice tells buyers something is wrong with it. In a market with this much choice, the first two weeks are when you have the most attention.
- Plan for concessions before you get the offer. Decide in advance what you would pay toward closing costs or a rate buydown, and what that is worth to you compared with a price cut. Buyers in this group are paying around 7% for a loan, and a credit toward their payment can help a deal that a price cut alone wouldn't.
- If your city has lots of new construction, expect it to compete with you. Builders in Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Queen Creek and San Tan Valley can offer incentives that a resale seller can't match on price. Your edge is what a new build doesn't have: established landscaping, a finished community, and a closing date that doesn't depend on construction.
- Get the home ready. Condition, photos and showing access matter most when buyers are comparing. A home that shows well and is priced correctly sells faster than one that is priced optimistically.
- Prepare for the appraisal. If values in your neighborhood are flat or sliding, an appraisal that comes in under the contract price is more likely. Talk through what you'd do if it does before you're in the middle of it.
What to watch
Seller motivation again, from the other side. If neighbors who need to sell start cutting prices, your comps move before you list. Watch what the homes on your street and in your subdivision do over the next few weeks, because that is what a buyer's agent will point to.
Next step
Reach out however you like (reply, call or text) and tell me your city and your home. I'll put together a price range based on what is active and what has actually closed near you, plus what the neighborhood is doing with concessions. That takes the guessing out of the first conversation.
Cities Between 80 and 110 on the Cromford Market Index
GUIDE 3: Buying Before Year-End in a City Between 80 and 110
Cities: Peoria, Avondale, Glendale, Mesa, Gilbert, Phoenix
Market data as of October 6, 2026 (Cromford Report, single family detached). Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, October 1, 2026.
Where your city stands
The Cromford Market Index runs on a scale where 100 is balanced, above 100 leans toward sellers, and below 100 leans toward buyers. Cromford describes it as a short-term forecast built from how pending, active and sold listings are trending against the previous four years. It is a read on direction and leverage, not a price tag.
These six cities sit close to 100, which means neither side has a clear edge. The direction is what matters. All six fell over the last 30 days, and three of them crossed from seller-leaning to buyer-leaning:
City | Index now | A month ago | Active listings now (a month ago) | Listing success rate now (a month ago) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Peoria | 80.4 | 89.7 | 783 (690) | 71.5% (70.3%) |
Glendale | 97.9 | 111.0 | 644 (610) | 67.8% (71.2%) |
Gilbert | 98.8 | 109.2 | 765 (752) | 71.6% (73.3%) |
Mesa | 99.5 | 116.7 | 1,128 (1,019) | 75.3% (75.7%) |
Avondale | 101.9 | 107.6 | 264 (261) | 65.9% (71.3%) |
Phoenix | 102.4 | 114.7 | 2,811 (2,583) | 68.0% (71.1%) |
Active listings exclude homes already under contract. Listing success rate is the share of listings that end in a sale instead of expiring or being pulled. Glendale (67.8%), Avondale (65.9%) and Phoenix (68.0%) all dropped by three to five points in a month, so more sellers in those cities are listing and not getting a deal. Mesa held up best at 75.3%.
Sales are slowing while inventory climbs. Phoenix went from 777 sales a month to 706 and from 2,583 active listings to 2,811. Gilbert dropped from 272 sales to 227. Mesa went from 374 to 348 and from 1,019 active listings to 1,128. Peoria is the closest to the Under 80 group at 80.4, with active listings up 13% in a month.
What that means for you as a buyer
This is not the same situation as the cities under 80. There, buyers have had leverage for a while and most sellers have already adjusted. Here, the market flipped in the last 30 days. A month ago Mesa was at 116.7 and Phoenix at 114.7, which is a seller's market by any measure. Now both are near 100. Many sellers are still pricing like it's August, and some of them have already figured out it isn't. Your job is to tell the two apart. The index is a city-wide read, so the house you want still sits in one neighborhood, at one price, with its own seller.
What to do before December 31
- Get your lender to run the payment at 7.28% (Freddie Mac, Oct 1, 2026) and ask about a rate lock with a float-down option. Rates move every week and you may need to move fast on the right house. Know your number before you walk into a showing, not after.
- Sort the listings into two piles. Stale ones (30+ days on market, a price cut or two, or a relist) belong to sellers who have already learned the market changed. Fresh ones priced off August comps belong to sellers who haven't. The first pile is where you negotiate. The second pile is where you wait, because they will cut within a few weeks.
- Pull sold comps from the last 30 days, not the last 90. Anything older was priced in a seller's market. Offers based on those numbers will either overpay or get ignored, and the 30-day set is where the real shift shows up.
- Expect less room than in the cities under 80, and plan the offer by listing. On a home priced right, a clean offer with a seller credit toward closing costs or a buydown may be the best you get. On a stale listing, go lower on price and make the seller come to you. We decide the structure (price, credits, a buydown, or a mix) based on what works best for you overall. If the seller won't move, we move on, unless it's a house you love.
- If you plan to wait, know what you're betting on. If rates fall, buyers who have been sitting out come back, and the leverage in these cities can swing the other way fast, because they are so close to 100. If rates stay near 7%, prices come down. Either way, decide your plan now.
- Phoenix is not one market. Arcadia, Ahwatukee, Laveen and North Phoenix are all counted in the same 102.4. A city-wide index tells you the direction. The neighborhood tells you the leverage. Ask me what the specific area is doing before you assume the number applies.
- Avondale is a smaller market (60 sales a month, 264 active listings), so its numbers move more easily than the bigger cities. It still fell 5.7 points in a month and the listing success rate dropped from 71.3% to 65.9%, so the direction matches the rest of the group.
What to watch
Price cuts and the next two index readings. Prices in this tier have held up better than the Under 80 cities, but the index only just turned. If it keeps falling, expect price cuts to spread from the stale listings to the fresh ones. If it stabilizes near 100, the sellers who haven't cut yet will feel less pressure to. If rates stay near 7% for an extended stretch, prices will come down here too. Freddie Mac releases a new rate every Thursday.
Timing is also on a buyer's side. The end of the year has typically been one of the better times to buy, because fewer buyers are out and the sellers still listed tend to be more motivated. With the index moving the way it is, that stacks.
Next step
Reach out however you like (reply, call or text) and tell me your city, your price range and your timeline. I'll pull the active and recently sold listings for the neighborhoods you are looking at and show you where the negotiating room actually is.
GUIDE 4: Selling Before Year-End in a City Between 80 and 110
Cities: Peoria, Avondale, Glendale, Mesa, Gilbert, Phoenix
Market data as of October 6, 2026 (Cromford Report, single family detached). Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, October 1, 2026.
Where your city stands
Same index and same data as the buyer guide. The short version: these cities are close to balanced, and the trend is moving toward buyers. All six fell in the last 30 days, and Mesa, Gilbert and Glendale crossed below 100. (See the table in Guide 3.)
For a seller, the number to watch is the gap between listings and sales. Phoenix has 2,811 active listings and 706 sales a month. Mesa has 1,128 active listings and 348 sales a month. Listing success rate fell in five of the six cities, and in Avondale, Glendale and Phoenix it is now below 69%, which means roughly one in three listings does not end in a sale.
What that means for you as a seller
This is not the same situation as the cities under 80. There, the market has favored buyers for a while and most sellers have already adjusted. Here, the market flipped in the last 30 days. A month ago many of these cities were in seller's-market territory, and plenty of homes sold quickly at August prices. Buyers have noticed the change. If your price is based on what the neighbor got in August, you are probably overpriced, and the first few weeks will show you.
What to do before December 31
- Decide whether you have to sell, or want to. If your timeline is flexible, the question is whether you list now or wait. Listing now means competing while prices are still close to where they were. Waiting means betting on rates, and if they stay near 7%, prices will come down. If you have to sell (a move, a job, a purchase already in motion), the plan below is for you.
- Price off the last 30 days, not the last 90. Sales from August and earlier happened in a seller's market. The comps that matter are what closed in the last month and what is sitting on the market today, especially the listings that have already cut their price. Those are what buyers are comparing you against.
- Treat the first two weeks as your best shot. New listings get the most attention at the start. In a market that just flipped, a home that comes out at an August price and gets cut a month later usually ends up selling below where it would have if it had been priced correctly on day one. Buyers watch for price cuts, and they offer lower once they see one.
- Decide your concessions before the first offer. Decide in advance what you would pay toward closing costs or a rate buydown, and compare that to a price cut. In this tier, many buyers will still pay close to your price if you help with their payment. A buydown credit often costs you less than the price cut that would get the same buyer.
- Be ready for a quick drop in leverage. These cities are close to 100, so if rates ease, buyers who have been waiting could come back and help you. If rates keep rising, expect the opposite. Have a plan for both (what price you would cut to, and when), so you aren't deciding under pressure.
- Get the home ready before you list. Condition, photos and showing access matter most when buyers have a choice. The listings that sell in a flipping market are the ones that look good and are priced right. Fix the small things first, because buyers use them to negotiate down.
- Prepare for the appraisal. If values in your neighborhood are flat or sliding, an appraisal that comes in under the contract price is more likely, especially in a market that just turned. Talk through what you would do if it does before you're in the middle of it.
- Phoenix sellers: your neighborhood matters more than the city number. Phoenix's 102.4 covers Arcadia, Ahwatukee, Laveen and North Phoenix, which are very different markets. Ask me what your specific area is doing before you set a price off the citywide number. Avondale sellers: it is a small market (60 sales a month), so a few listings can move the numbers quickly, and the listing success rate there fell from 71.3% to 65.9% in a month.
What to watch
Whether neighbors cut. If homes near yours start dropping their price, your comps move before you list, and buyer agents will point to them. Watch what is happening on your street and in your subdivision over the next few weeks. Also watch the next two index readings. If it keeps falling, expect price cuts to spread from the stale listings to the fresh ones. If it stabilizes near 100, sellers who priced right will have a better chance of getting their number.
Next step
Reach out however you like (reply, call or text) and tell me your city and your home. I'll put together a price range based on what is active and what has actually closed near you, plus what the neighborhood is doing with concessions. That takes the guessing out of the first conversation.
Cities Over 110 on the Cromford Market Index
GUIDE 5: Buying Before Year-End in a City Over 110
Cities: Chandler, Scottsdale
Market data as of October 12, 2026 (Cromford Report, single family detached). Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, October 8, 2026.
Where your city stands
The Cromford Market Index runs on a scale where 100 is balanced, above 100 leans toward sellers, and below 100 leans toward buyers. Cromford describes it as a short-term forecast built from how pending, active and sold listings are trending against the previous four years. It is a read on direction and leverage, not a price tag.
Chandler and Scottsdale are the only two large Phoenix-area cities still well above 110. Sellers still have the edge in both. The direction is the story, because both fell over the last month:
City | Index now | A month ago | Active listings now (a month ago) | Listing success rate now (a month ago) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chandler | 119.0 | 134.7 | 549 (493) | 77.1% (75.6%) |
Scottsdale | 146.0 | 158.7 | 1,225 (1,048) | 77.0% (68.6%) |
Active listings exclude homes already under contract. Listing success rate is the share of listings that end in a sale instead of expiring or being pulled. At 77%, roughly one in four listings in both cities still does not sell. Those are almost always the ones priced for a market that no longer exists.
Chandler and Scottsdale are falling for different reasons. In Chandler, buyers are backing off. Homes going pending dropped from 104 to 81 in a month (down 22%), and monthly sales slipped from 183 to 168. In Scottsdale, demand actually ticked up (the demand reading went from 81.1 to 83.5), but supply grew faster. Active listings rose 17% in a month, from 1,048 to 1,225, and months of supply went from 3.3 to 4.1.
What that means for you as a buyer
You are not walking into a buyer's market here. Chandler and Scottsdale are still the two places in the Valley where a well-priced home can pull multiple offers. What has changed is that there are more homes to choose from, fewer buyers competing in Chandler, and a growing number of sellers who priced off the spring. Your leverage depends on which house you are looking at, more than in any other bracket.
What to do before December 31
- Start from the real discount, not the list price. Homes in Chandler sold for an average of 97.5% of list price last month, and in Scottsdale 95.8%. That means the typical Scottsdale buyer already got about 4% off list. Those are averages. The best homes closed at or near list, and the ones that sat closed well below it. Where a house falls between those two is what we find out before you offer.
- Find out how much competition a house has before you write the offer. Ask how many showings it has had, whether there are other offers, and how long it has been listed. A home in its first two weeks with a lot of showings is a different negotiation than one at 45 days with a price cut. In Chandler, the typical sold home spent 47 days on the market, and in Scottsdale 55. Anything near or past those numbers is where you have room.
- Make a strong offer on the right house and a test offer on the other ones. On a good home that is priced right, the best leverage you have is a clean offer: strong financing, a firm timeline, no unnecessary conditions. On a home that has been sitting, the first offer is how you find out where the seller really is. We decide the structure (price, credits, a buydown, or a mix) based on what works best for you overall. If the seller won't move, we move on, unless it's a house you love.
- Don't trust the median price in either city. In Scottsdale, the median sold price jumped from $1.13 million to $1.275 million in one month. In Chandler it fell from $580,000 to $537,500. Neither of those is values moving. They reflect which homes happened to sell that month. Price per square foot held roughly steady in Chandler ($284) and rose from $447 to $469 in Scottsdale, which is a better read, and the best read of all is the comps in the neighborhood you want.
- Run the payment at today's rate, then ask about a float-down. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.40% as of Oct 8, 2026. This summer it ran between 6.43% (July 2) and 6.69% (Aug 6). On a $500,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.40% is about $3,462 a month, compared with roughly $3,137 to $3,223 at the summer rates. That is $239 to $325 more per month for the same loan, and loan sizes in these two cities are often larger. Know your number before you start looking, and ask your lender how a float-down would work if rates drop after you lock.
What to watch
The next two index readings, and what Chandler's pending sales do. If Chandler's pending count keeps falling, the index will keep dropping and sellers who haven't cut yet will start to. In Scottsdale, watch supply. If active listings keep climbing and demand does not, the leverage shifts toward buyers faster than the index suggests. And if rates stay near 7.4% for an extended stretch, prices will come down here too. Buyers can only afford so much payment, and these are the cities where the monthly payment is highest. Freddie Mac releases a new rate every Thursday.
Timing is also on a buyer's side. The end of the year has typically been one of the better times to buy, because fewer buyers are out and the sellers still listed tend to be more motivated. Here that matters more than it does in the cities under 80, because you are starting from a stronger seller position.
Next step
Reach out however you like (reply, call or text) and tell me your city, your price range and your timeline. I'll pull the active and recently sold listings for the neighborhoods you are looking at and show you which homes have competition and which ones have room.
GUIDE 6: Selling Before Year-End in a City Over 110
Cities: Chandler, Scottsdale
Market data as of October 12, 2026 (Cromford Report, single family detached). Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, October 8, 2026.
Where your city stands
Same index and same data as the buyer guide. The short version: Chandler (119.0) and Scottsdale (146.0) are still seller-leaning, which makes them the strongest seller markets in the Valley right now. But both fell more than 12 points in a month, and inventory is rising in both. (See the table in Guide 5.)
For a seller, the numbers to watch are inventory and sales. Chandler has 549 active listings and 168 sales a month. Scottsdale has 1,225 active listings and 302 sales a month. Scottsdale's active listings rose 17% in a month, and Chandler's rose 11%. Your home is competing with more listings than it would have a month ago, for buyers who have more choice.
What that means for you as a seller
You still have the edge, and you will keep it if you price like today's market and not last spring's. These are the cities where homes have sold fastest and closest to asking price. A seller who lists at a price that worked in March can wait weeks for the first offer, and a seller who prices off current sales usually doesn't have to.
What to do before December 31
- Know what typically happens between list price and closing price. Chandler homes sold for an average of 97.5% of list last month, and Scottsdale homes for 95.8%. If you list at $1,000,000 in Scottsdale, the average result is about $958,000, before concessions. Work backward from the number you need to net, and then check whether the price you want to list at is realistic.
- Don't pad the price to leave room to negotiate. Buyers in both cities are comparing your home against more listings than last month. A padded price doesn't leave room, it just sits, and by the time you cut, buyers have noticed. The listing success rate says it plainly: about one in four listings in both cities ends without a sale.
- Treat timing as a conversation, not a rule. When to list depends on your situation: where you are moving next, your price range, the condition of the home, and what is competing with you in your neighborhood. Inventory is rising in both cities, so it is worth a call to work out the best plan for you before you decide to list or wait.
- Expect higher price points to move slower. A typical sold home in Chandler spent 47 days on the market, and in Scottsdale 55. At the upper end of Scottsdale, expect more. Photos, staging and price matter most there, because the pool of buyers at $1.5 million and up is smaller and more selective.
- Use concessions as a counter, not an opener. You may not need to offer a credit or a rate buydown up front here. Decide your limit before the first offer (what you would pay toward closing costs or a buydown, and how that compares to a price cut) and hold it until a buyer asks. With rates at 7.40%, a credit toward a buyer's payment is often worth more to them than the same dollars off the price.
- If you are buying your next home, run that payment before you list. Rates are 7.40% as of Oct 8, up from a summer range of 6.43% to 6.69%. What you can afford to buy with your proceeds is a different number than it would have been a few months ago, and it matters more in these price ranges than anywhere else. Know your next payment at today's rate before you decide on a list price or a timeline.
- Prepare for the appraisal, and know which way your city leans. Scottsdale's recent sales have been strong, which helps, but a contract price above the closest sold comps can still come in low. In Chandler, the annual median price is down 2.4%, so the risk is higher if your price was based on spring sales. Talk through what you would do if the appraisal comes in under before you're in the middle of it.
What to watch
Pending sales in Chandler, and inventory in Scottsdale. If Chandler's pending count keeps falling, expect the index to fall with it, and sellers who haven't adjusted will feel it first. If Scottsdale's inventory keeps rising while demand holds, buyers get more choice but the leverage doesn't flip as quickly. If rates stay near 7.4% for an extended stretch, expect price cuts to spread. Neighbors who list at a lower price will move your comps before you list.
Next step
Reach out however you like (reply, call or text) and tell me your city and your home. I'll put together a price range based on what is active and what has actually closed near you, plus what the neighborhood is doing with concessions. That takes the guessing out of the first conversation.
